FPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FPI - Farmland Partners Inc.
$10.16
-0.19 (-1.84%)
▼
5d:
-3.97%
30d:
-11.96%
90d:
-15.19%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.30
Based on 1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FPI is currently trading at $10.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.60 to $11.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 50.8) compared to its historical average (57.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FPI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FPI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.60 -
$11.74
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.60 -
$11.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.17
Resistance Level
$10.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
50.80
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.3%
Profit Margin
58.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
50.8 vs 57.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.75
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.36
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$8.99
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→57)
$10.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 50.8, Growth: -1.6%)
$9.67
(+-5%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: -1.6%)
$4.20
(-59%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: -1.6%)
$3.57
(-65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$5.69
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$5.18
(-49%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$7.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 50.8 to 57.4
Stabilization Target:
$11.48
(+13.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 8:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer S Grafton
BUY
1600 shares
2026-02-24
John A Good
BUY
3000 shares
2025-12-15
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