FRME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRME - First Merchants Corp
$43.44
-0.85 (-1.92%)
▼
5d:
+0.16%
30d:
+8.19%
90d:
+10.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FRME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FRME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.97
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRME is currently trading at $43.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.94 to $42.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $41.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FRME has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.00 (+10.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $41.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FRME has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.00 (+10.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$39.94 -
$42.81
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.9% growth with -2.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.94 -
$42.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.86
Resistance Level
$41.29
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.43
Wall Street Target
$48.00
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.1%
Profit Margin
31.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.27
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$45.11
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$45.96
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.38
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.1%)
$126.58
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 8.1%)
$54.81
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 8.1%)
$46.58
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.39
Bull Case
$66.20
(+52%)
Analyst growth 35.9%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$60.19
(+39%)
Market implied 35.9%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$30.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Larry W Myers
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-26
Eva D Scurlock
SELL
3227 shares
2026-02-06
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