FRPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRPT - Freshpet, Inc.
$56.66
0.73 (1.30%)
▲
5d:
-12.41%
30d:
-32.91%
90d:
-11.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
FRPT is down 7.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-05-15 with 266 OI. Call ratio: 84% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
Get Alerted When FRPT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FRPT is down 12.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FRPT is down 12.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.88
6.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $56.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.17 to $83.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.8) compared to its historical average (42.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 79.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.31, while resistance sits at $78.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.44 (+54.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.31, while resistance sits at $78.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.44 (+54.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$65.17 -
$83.39
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FRPT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.5% below Wall St target ($86.44)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$65.17 -
$83.39
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.31
Resistance Level
$78.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.77
Wall Street Target
$86.44
(+54.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.8 vs 42.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.34
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$45.30
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$40.77
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→43)
$62.69
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.8, Growth: 47.8%)
$180.61
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 47.8%)
$145.68
(+161%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 47.8%)
$123.83
(+121%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 24.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.64
Bull Case
$54.52
(-16%)
Analyst growth -23.2%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$49.56
(-23%)
Market implied -23.2%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$43.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.8 to 42.7
Stabilization Target:
$85.99
(+53.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 9:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is FRPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott James Morris
SELL
5142 shares
2025-12-05
Scott James Morris
SELL
63135 shares
2025-11-06
Top Rated Packaged Foods Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Packaged Foods by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DAR
Darling Ingredients Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$62 | 58 HOLD |
|
BRBR
Bellring Brands LLC |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$30 | 45 HOLD |
|
NOMD
Nomad Foods Ltd |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$14 | 62 BUY |
|
CPB
Campbell’s Co |
SELL
23 analysts |
$26 | 55 HOLD |
|
GIS
General Mills Inc |
SELL
23 analysts |
$42 | 57 HOLD |
Advanced FRPT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FRPT price and gamma walls.
