FSBC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSBC - Five Star Bancorp Common Stock
$48.66
-0.90 (-1.82%)
▼
5d:
+2.03%
30d:
+13.64%
90d:
+27.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSBC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: FSBC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.86
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBC is currently trading at $48.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.45 to $47.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FSBC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FSBC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$42.45 -
$47.22
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($46.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.45 -
$47.22
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.18
Resistance Level
$44.49
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.29
Wall Street Target
$46.00
(-5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.7%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 10.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.29
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$54.06
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$56.98
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.66
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.2%)
$118.67
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$66.99
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 11.2%)
$56.94
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$68.50
(+41%)
Analyst growth 25.7%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$62.27
(+28%)
Market implied 25.7%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$33.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James Eugene Beckwith
SELL
4000 shares
2026-03-09
Michael Eugene Lee
SELL
1200 shares
2026-02-20
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