FSBC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSBC - Five Star Bancorp Common Stock
$40.39
-0.54 (-1.32%)
▼
5d:
-3.23%
30d:
+0.4%
90d:
-0.37%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FSBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FSBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.52
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBC is currently trading at $40.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.95 to $41.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 40.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.10 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.10 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.95 -
$41.22
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.95 -
$41.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.94
Resistance Level
$42.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.21
Wall Street Target
$45.10
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.7%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.27
(0%)
2-Year Target
$40.15
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$40.03
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$40.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.1%)
$119.77
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 11.1%)
$55.43
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 11.1%)
$47.12
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$55.87
(+38%)
Analyst growth 25.5%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$50.79
(+26%)
Market implied 25.5%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$27.51
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$40.73
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James Eugene Beckwith
SELL
4000 shares
2026-03-09
Michael Eugene Lee
SELL
1200 shares
2026-02-20
Michael Anthony Rizzo
SELL
641 shares
2025-12-12
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