FSLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FSLY - Fastly, Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$28.63
3.11 (12.20%) ▲
5d: +1.53%
30d: +35.25%
90d: +180.44%
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LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution

FSLY is up 9.2% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $18 2026-05-01 with 3,505 OI. Put ratio: 70% View Scanner →

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FSLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.73
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.01
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FSLY is currently trading at $28.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.39 to $27.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 70.1) is in line with its historical norms (68.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.90, while resistance sits at $30.95. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 12.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.71. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Fair Price Range $19.39 - $27.07
Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 42.4%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.8% above fair value)
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+12.2%)
  • BEARISH: Trading 46.3% above Wall St target ($13.71)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $19.39 - $27.07
Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $23.90
Resistance Level $30.95
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Mar 31, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 70.09
Wall Street Target $13.71 (-46.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 22.8%
Profit Margin -19.5%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.6% premium
PE vs Historical 70.1 vs 68.9 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $25.67 (+1%)
2-Year Target $25.83 (+1%)
3-Year Target $25.98 (+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 70→69) PE COMPRESSION $25.54 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 70.1, Growth: 31.3%) $57.77 (+126%)
Base: (SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 31.3%) $18.42 (-28%)
Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 31.3%) $15.66 (-39%)
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Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Artur Bergman SELL 265000 shares 2026-03-10
Artur Bergman SELL 40000 shares 2026-03-09
Artur Bergman SELL 31079 shares 2026-03-05

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Advanced FSLY Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FSLY price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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