FTAI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FTAI - FTAI Aviation Ltd. Common Stock

SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS EQUIPMENT RENTAL & LEASING
$272.32
-3.69 (-1.34%) ▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your FTAI Gains
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026 24d
Smart Money Accumulation

FTAI is down 6.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $270 2026-03-20 with 979 OI. Call ratio: 93% View Scanner →

Strength: 7.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FTAI trades at premium valuation expecting 9.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$327.79
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$203.53
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FTAI is currently trading at $272.32, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $198.98 to $282.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 41.0) compared to its historical average (31.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $264.01, while resistance sits at $310.00.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range $198.98 - $282.42
Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 59.5%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($282.10)
  • NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 9.6% growth which is achievable
  • CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.8%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $198.98 - $282.42
Current vs Fair Value SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $264.01
Resistance Level $310.00
Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 40.99
Wall Street Target $282.10 (+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 43.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 44.7%
Profit Margin 20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History +9.6% premium
PE vs Historical 41.0 vs 31.2 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +9.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $302.51 (+10%)
2-Year Target $331.55 (+20%)
3-Year Target $363.38 (+32%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 41→31) PE COMPRESSION $276.56 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 41.0, Growth: 41.1%) $775.02 (+181%)
Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 41.1%) $421.60 (+53%)
Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 41.1%) $358.36 (+30%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 34.13 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.98
Bull Case $328.83 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.8
Base Case $272.32 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.1
Bear Case $208.32 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is FTAI showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced FTAI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FTAI price and gamma walls.

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