GBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBDC - Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
$13.39
-0.16 (-1.18%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GBDC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GBDC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.09
Based on -2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.89
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBDC is currently trading at $13.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.48 to $13.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBDC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBDC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$13.48 -
$13.78
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GBDC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.00)
- BEARISH: Market expects 1.6% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.48 -
$13.78
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.38
Resistance Level
$13.94
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.50
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Profit Margin
43.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.77
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$13.99
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$14.21
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -9.7%)
$21.21
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: -9.7%)
$9.99
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: -9.7%)
$8.49
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.42
Bull Case
$13.53
(+1%)
Analyst growth -9.2%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$12.30
(-8%)
Market implied -9.2%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$9.21
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GBDC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GBDC price and gamma walls.
