GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$9.75
-0.05 (-0.51%)
▼
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
-15.22%
90d:
-14.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Get Alerted When GCMG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GCMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GCMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.52
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.36
27.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $9.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.84 to $11.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 104.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.30, while resistance sits at $10.28.
Market Sentiment: GCMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.88 (+73.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.30, while resistance sits at $10.28.
Market Sentiment: GCMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.88 (+73.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$9.84 -
$11.55
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 73.1% below Wall St target ($16.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.84 -
$11.55
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.30
Resistance Level
$10.28
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.18
Wall Street Target
$16.88
(+73.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
104.4%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 11.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.96
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$8.23
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$7.57
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$9.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.1%)
$40.06
(+311%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 19.1%)
$16.45
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 19.1%)
$13.99
(+43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.42
Bull Case
$21.32
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.4
Base Case
$19.38
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$6.59
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$12.53
(+28.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pamela L Bentley
SELL
40000 shares
2025-12-16
Top Rated Asset Management Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Asset Management by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BLK
BlackRock Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$1321 | 61 BUY |
|
APO
Apollo Global Management… |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$155 | 63 BUY |
|
HASI
Hannon Armstrong Sustain… |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$44 | 62 BUY |
|
BX
Blackstone Group Inc |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$159 | 59 HOLD |
|
OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$15 | 58 HOLD |
