GFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFI - Gold Fields Ltd ADR
$50.12
-8.49 (-14.49%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GFI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GFI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.83
18.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFI is currently trading at $50.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.47 to $53.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.17, while resistance sits at $61.64. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 14.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: GFI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $47.66. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.17, while resistance sits at $61.64. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 14.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: GFI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $47.66. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$44.47 -
$53.81
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GFI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-14.5%)
- BEARISH: Trading 18.7% above Wall St target ($47.66)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.8% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$44.47 -
$53.81
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.17
Resistance Level
$61.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.75
Wall Street Target
$47.66
(-18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
63.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
163.3%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.7% premium
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.36
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$64.25
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$67.27
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.69
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 34.7%)
$232.48
(+297%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 34.7%)
$143.38
(+145%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 34.7%)
$121.87
(+108%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
Bull Case
$90.84
(+81%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$82.58
(+65%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$28.08
(-44%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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