GFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFL - GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
$44.84
1.28 (2.94%)
▲
5d:
+12.75%
30d:
+0.16%
90d:
+4.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Get Alerted When GFL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.81
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.24
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFL is currently trading at $44.84, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.73 to $44.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 32.7) compared to its historical average (37.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.86 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.86 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$40.73 -
$44.41
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($53.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$40.73 -
$44.41
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.60
Resistance Level
$43.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.72
Wall Street Target
$53.86
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Profit Margin
58.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.7 vs 37.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.64
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$39.81
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$38.06
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→38)
$43.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.7, Growth: 33.9%)
$104.50
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 33.9%)
$71.38
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 33.9%)
$60.67
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 45.66 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.89
Bull Case
$48.88
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 48.0
Base Case
$40.48
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 45.7
Bear Case
$30.97
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 41.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.7 to 37.5
Stabilization Target:
$49.92
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 11:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is GFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Waste Management Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Waste Management by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WCN
Waste Connections Inc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$199 | 53 HOLD |
|
RSG
Republic Services Inc |
BUY
24 analysts |
$245 | 56 HOLD |
|
WM
Waste Management Inc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$254 | 54 HOLD |
|
CLH
Clean Harbors Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$302 | 57 HOLD |
|
CWST
Casella Waste Systems Inc |
BUY
10 analysts |
$114 | 55 HOLD |
