GFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFL - GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
$42.95
-0.28 (-0.65%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.09
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.10
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFL is currently trading at $42.95, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.31 to $43.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.0) is in line with its historical norms (41.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.74 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.74 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$42.31 -
$43.92
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.3% below Wall St target ($56.74)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$42.31 -
$43.92
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.94
Resistance Level
$45.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.02
Wall Street Target
$56.74
(+31.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Profit Margin
43.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
42.0 vs 41.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.36
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$43.49
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$43.62
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→42)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.29
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.0, Growth: 74.8%)
$145.90
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 74.8%)
$77.43
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 74.8%)
$65.82
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 52.08 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.82
Bull Case
$51.86
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 54.7
Base Case
$42.95
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 52.1
Bear Case
$32.86
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 46.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GFL price and gamma walls.
