CWST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CWST - Casella Waste Systems Inc
$85.18
-1.13 (-1.31%)
▼
5d:
-0.3%
30d:
+3.76%
90d:
-17.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
CWST is down 3.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $90 2026-06-18 with 7 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CWST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.6% annual earnings decline despite 60% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CWST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.6% annual earnings decline despite 60% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CWST is currently trading at $85.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.81 to $86.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 56.8) compared to its historical average (65.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 60.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CWST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $82.34, while resistance sits at $89.48.
Market Sentiment: CWST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $112.00 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CWST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $82.34, while resistance sits at $89.48.
Market Sentiment: CWST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $112.00 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$79.81 -
$86.15
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($112.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.81 -
$86.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.87
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.34
Resistance Level
$89.49
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
56.77
Wall Street Target
$112.00
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.2%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
56.8 vs 65.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.26
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$77.52
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$73.96
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 57→66)
$85.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 56.8, Growth: 27.7%)
$177.17
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 27.7%)
$68.88
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 27.7%)
$58.55
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (89x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (57x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 88.50 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.96
Bull Case
$102.85
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 92.9
Base Case
$85.18
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 88.5
Bear Case
$65.16
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 79.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 56.8 to 65.5
Stabilization Target:
$98.28
(+15.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CWST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradford John Helgeson
SELL
405 shares
2026-03-16
Edmond Coletta
SELL
988 shares
2026-03-16
John W Casella
SELL
1744 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced CWST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CWST price and gamma walls.
