GGB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$4.27
-0.13 (-2.95%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GGB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GGB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.08
16.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $4.27, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.77 to $4.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.7) is in line with its historical norms (1.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.07, while resistance sits at $4.66.
Market Sentiment: GGB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.07, while resistance sits at $4.66.
Market Sentiment: GGB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$3.77 -
$4.33
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($4.78)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 3.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.77 -
$4.33
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.07
Resistance Level
$4.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.68
Wall Street Target
$4.78
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.6%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 1.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.45
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$4.51
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$4.56
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.36
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 46.2%)
$183.04
(+4060%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 46.2%)
$13.75
(+213%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 46.2%)
$11.69
(+166%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.29
Bull Case
$10.05
(+136%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$9.14
(+114%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$3.11
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GGB price and gamma walls.
