GGB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$3.78
-0.01 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
+8.93%
30d:
+0.8%
90d:
+2.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GGB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GGB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.13
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.05
25.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $3.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.35 to $3.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.4) is in line with its historical norms (1.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GGB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.73 (+25.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GGB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.73 (+25.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$3.35 -
$3.90
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.3% below Wall St target ($4.73)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.35 -
$3.90
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.21
Resistance Level
$3.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.36
Wall Street Target
$4.73
(+25.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.6%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.68
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$3.59
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$3.49
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$3.86
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 32.8%)
$57.81
(+1429%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 32.8%)
$3.82
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 32.8%)
$3.24
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.13
Bull Case
$7.17
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$6.52
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$2.22
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.5
Stabilization Target:
$4.17
(+10.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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