GPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$9.94
0.53 (5.63%)
▲
5d:
+10.69%
30d:
-15.55%
90d:
-34.73%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.32
25.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $9.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.35 to $11.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+40.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+40.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$9.35 -
$11.65
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 40.8% below Wall St target ($14.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.35 -
$11.65
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.79
Resistance Level
$9.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.40
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+40.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.60
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$9.28
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$8.96
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$9.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 33.5%)
$71.48
(+619%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 33.5%)
$23.66
(+138%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 33.5%)
$20.11
(+102%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$9.01
(-3%)
Analyst growth -8.1%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$8.19
(-12%)
Market implied -8.1%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$6.06
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$11.02
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robbert Rietbroek
BUY
44278 shares
2026-03-04
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-09
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