GRDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRDN - Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
$36.61
0.34 (0.94%)
▲
5d:
+1.44%
30d:
-0.92%
90d:
+9.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 18, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
GRDN is up 3.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $35 2026-07-17 with 494 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRDN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRDN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.21
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRDN is currently trading at $36.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.93 to $38.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.9) is in line with its historical norms (27.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.25, while resistance sits at $37.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.17 (+17.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.25, while resistance sits at $37.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.17 (+17.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$35.93 -
$38.32
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.93 -
$38.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.10
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.25
Resistance Level
$37.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.95
Wall Street Target
$43.17
(+17.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 27.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.21
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$35.81
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$35.42
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→28)
$36.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 7.8%)
$45.86
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$37.56
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$31.92
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$64.51
(+76%)
Analyst growth 61.7%, PE expands to 47.5
Base Case
$58.65
(+60%)
Market implied 61.7%, PE stable at 43.2
Bear Case
$24.66
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.0 to 27.8
Stabilization Target:
$37.76
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Equity Fund L.P. Cardinal
SELL
275728 shares
2026-03-20
Fred Burke
SELL
671432 shares
2026-03-20
John Ackerman
SELL
1103364 shares
2026-03-20
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Advanced GRDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRDN price and gamma walls.
