GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$42.30
1.20 (2.92%)
▲
5d:
-4.71%
30d:
-21.96%
90d:
-43.83%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GSHD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GSHD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.48
47.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $42.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.31 to $50.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $40.00, while resistance sits at $47.02.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.42 (+75.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $40.00, while resistance sits at $47.02.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.42 (+75.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$42.31 -
$50.87
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 75.9% below Wall St target ($74.42)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$42.31 -
$50.87
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.00
Resistance Level
$47.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.89
Wall Street Target
$74.42
(+75.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.7%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 27.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.07
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$34.26
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$30.84
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→27)
$52.98
(+25%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.8%)
$127.27
(+201%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 28.8%)
$90.48
(+114%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 28.8%)
$76.90
(+82%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.04
Bull Case
$93.32
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.9
Base Case
$84.84
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$28.85
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 27.3
Stabilization Target:
$72.68
(+71.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+71.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Louis Goldberg
BUY
5575 shares
2026-02-20
Thomas Mcconnon
SELL
69686 shares
2025-12-01
Mark Miller
BUY
5000 shares
2025-11-28
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