GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$61.84
-0.88 (-1.40%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GSHD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GSHD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.36
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.35
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $61.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.75 to $75.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.4) compared to its historical average (34.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.82 (+43.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.82 (+43.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$66.75 -
$75.17
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GSHD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.2% below Wall St target ($89.82)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.9% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$66.75 -
$75.17
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.29
(8.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.52
Resistance Level
$73.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.41
Wall Street Target
$89.82
(+43.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.4 vs 34.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.77
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$56.96
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$54.29
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→34)
$62.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.4, Growth: 19.5%)
$107.12
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.5%)
$81.22
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.5%)
$69.04
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 30.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.03
Bull Case
$74.67
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$61.84
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$47.31
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.4 to 34.0
Stabilization Target:
$72.51
(+15.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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Advanced GSHD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GSHD price and gamma walls.
