GWRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GWRE - GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC.
$150.79
2.21 (1.49%)
▲
5d:
-0.36%
30d:
-1.95%
90d:
-24.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 02, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
GWRE is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $165 2026-05-15 with 6 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
Get Alerted When GWRE Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GWRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GWRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.38
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.35
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GWRE is currently trading at $150.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.41 to $162.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.6) compared to its historical average (47.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 228.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $142.86, while resistance sits at $161.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.14 (+55.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $142.86, while resistance sits at $161.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.14 (+55.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$138.41 -
$162.30
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.3% below Wall St target ($234.14)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$138.41 -
$162.30
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.86
Resistance Level
$161.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.61
Wall Street Target
$234.14
(+55.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
228.0%
Profit Margin
14.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.6 vs 47.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.07
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$124.59
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$113.26
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→47)
$150.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.6, Growth: 20.5%)
$264.09
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 20.5%)
$152.55
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 20.5%)
$129.67
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 48.54 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.23
Bull Case
$189.35
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.0
Base Case
$156.81
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 48.5
Bear Case
$119.96
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 43.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.6 to 47.4
Stabilization Target:
$200.71
(+33.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 10:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is GWRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James Winston King
SELL
1001 shares
2026-03-17
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper
SELL
1935 shares
2026-03-17
John P Mullen
SELL
6576 shares
2026-03-17
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
INTU
Intuit Inc |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$610 | 56 HOLD |
|
GRAB
Grab Holdings Ltd |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$6 | 60 HOLD |
|
ESTC
Elastic NV |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$82 | 59 HOLD |
|
TEAM
Atlassian Corp Plc |
STRONG BUY
33 analysts |
$172 | 52 HOLD |
|
SNOW
Snowflake Inc. |
STRONG BUY
50 analysts |
$240 | 53 HOLD |
Advanced GWRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GWRE price and gamma walls.
