GWRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GWRE - GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC.
$140.76
-6.88 (-4.66%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GWRE is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GWRE is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$188.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GWRE is currently trading at $140.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $158.14 to $198.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 38.2) compared to its historical average (60.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 228.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $259.64 (+75.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $259.64 (+75.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$158.14 -
$198.05
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GWRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 75.9% below Wall St target ($259.64)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$158.14 -
$198.05
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.25
Resistance Level
$166.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.22
Wall Street Target
$259.64
(+75.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
228.0%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
38.2 vs 60.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.88
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$119.59
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$107.63
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→60)
$169.51
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.2, Growth: 30.7%)
$329.84
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 30.7%)
$192.43
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 30.7%)
$163.57
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (54x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 54.05 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.60
Bull Case
$169.97
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 56.8
Base Case
$140.76
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 54.1
Bear Case
$107.68
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 48.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 38.2 to 60.2
Stabilization Target:
$232.53
(+57.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+57.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GWRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1400 shares
2025-10-20
James Winston King
SELL
798 shares
2025-10-20
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1400 shares
2025-10-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GWRE price and gamma walls.
