HBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HBCP - Home Bancorp, Inc.
$68.08
0.80 (1.19%)
▲
5d:
+3.97%
30d:
+8.49%
90d:
+17.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HBCP is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HBCP is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.95
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HBCP is currently trading at $68.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.30 to $66.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBCP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HBCP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBCP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HBCP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$63.30 -
$66.16
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($68.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.30 -
$66.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.17
Resistance Level
$67.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.88
Wall Street Target
$68.13
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.65
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$71.25
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$72.89
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$68.36
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 5.2%)
$159.80
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 5.2%)
$79.29
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 5.2%)
$67.39
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.95
Bull Case
$77.86
(+14%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$70.79
(+4%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$45.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 6:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Chris P Rader
BUY
500 shares
2026-02-19
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