HBM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HBM - Hudbay Minerals Inc.
$22.00
1.10 (5.26%)
▲
5d:
+9.89%
30d:
-11.79%
90d:
+10.55%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
HBM is up 10.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $20 2026-05-15 with 3,206 OI. Put ratio: 84% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
Get Alerted When HBM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HBM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.9% annual earnings decline despite 545% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HBM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.9% annual earnings decline despite 545% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.12
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.64
23.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HBM is currently trading at $22.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.25 to $25.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (13.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 544.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: HBM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.52 (+47.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: HBM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.52 (+47.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$19.25 -
$25.57
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 47.8% below Wall St target ($32.52)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.25 -
$25.57
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.50
Resistance Level
$21.98
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.66
Wall Street Target
$32.52
(+47.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
544.9%
Profit Margin
25.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 13.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.26
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$18.66
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$17.19
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$21.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.1%)
$74.10
(+237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 17.1%)
$35.36
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 17.1%)
$30.06
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$28.00
(+49%)
Analyst growth 40.8%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$25.46
(+35%)
Market implied 40.8%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$12.29
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 13.6
Stabilization Target:
$28.06
(+27.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HBM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Copper Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Copper by analyst ratings.
Advanced HBM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HBM price and gamma walls.
