HCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCI - HCI Group, Inc.
$155.21
4.72 (3.14%)
▲
5d:
+1.1%
30d:
-12.02%
90d:
-19.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$222.15
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.94
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $155.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $153.56 to $169.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1612.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $149.61, while resistance sits at $167.04. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $245.00 (+57.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $149.61, while resistance sits at $167.04. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $245.00 (+57.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$153.56 -
$169.51
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 57.9% below Wall St target ($245.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$153.56 -
$169.51
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.60
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$149.61
Resistance Level
$167.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.73
Wall Street Target
$245.00
(+57.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1612.3%
Profit Margin
33.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.60
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$140.37
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$133.49
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$154.43
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.7%)
$456.38
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 4.7%)
$178.28
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 4.7%)
$151.54
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.72
Bull Case
$129.19
(-16%)
Analyst growth -22.5%, PE expands to 7.3
Base Case
$117.45
(-24%)
Market implied -22.5%, PE stable at 6.7
Bear Case
$103.05
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$179.55
(+15.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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