HDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HDL - SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. American Depositary Shares
$16.07
-0.11 (-0.68%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HDL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HDL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.17
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.25
1.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HDL is currently trading at $16.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.10 to $16.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HDL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.60 (+33.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HDL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.60 (+33.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$16.10 -
$16.64
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.5% below Wall St target ($21.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.10 -
$16.64
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.01
Resistance Level
$16.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.85
Wall Street Target
$21.60
(+33.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-83.3%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.12
(0%)
2-Year Target
$16.05
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$15.99
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$16.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.7%)
$33.12
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.7%)
$25.04
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 15.7%)
$21.28
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.00
Bull Case
$17.26
(+7%)
Analyst growth -4.0%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$15.69
(-3%)
Market implied -4.0%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$11.11
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.42
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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