HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$31.84
1.00 (3.24%)
▲
5d:
+3.18%
30d:
+0.98%
90d:
+3.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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2 traders called HG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.62
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $31.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.55 to $32.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$30.55 -
$32.31
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.55 -
$32.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.41
Resistance Level
$31.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.73
Wall Street Target
$33.86
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.1%
Profit Margin
21.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.48
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$33.13
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$33.79
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.64
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 4.4%)
$118.81
(+273%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 4.4%)
$36.22
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 4.4%)
$30.79
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.09
Bull Case
$25.87
(-19%)
Analyst growth -22.3%, PE expands to 5.5
Base Case
$23.52
(-26%)
Market implied -22.3%, PE stable at 5.0
Bear Case
$20.58
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Bradley E Cooper
BUY
99 shares
2026-04-08
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