HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$51.17
0.39 (0.77%)
▲
5d:
+5.37%
30d:
+14.07%
90d:
+23.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HGV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HGV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.23
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $51.17, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.57 to $51.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 187.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.05, while resistance sits at $53.82.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.70 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.05, while resistance sits at $53.82.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.70 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$46.57 -
$51.32
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($57.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.57 -
$51.32
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.05
Resistance Level
$53.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.68
Wall Street Target
$57.70
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
187.2%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.79
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$48.44
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$47.14
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$51.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$159.54
(+212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 7.5%)
$63.61
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 7.5%)
$54.07
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$111.72
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.2
Base Case
$101.56
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.5
Bear Case
$34.53
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$55.39
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 4:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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