HLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$8.02
-0.23 (-2.79%)
▼
5d:
-3.61%
30d:
-3.72%
90d:
-7.39%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLMN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.4% annual earnings decline despite 210% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLMN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.4% annual earnings decline despite 210% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.63
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.57
30.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $8.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.01 to $8.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.68, while resistance sits at $8.59.
Market Sentiment: HLMN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.12 (+47.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.68, while resistance sits at $8.59.
Market Sentiment: HLMN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.12 (+47.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$8.01 -
$8.38
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.0% below Wall St target ($12.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.01 -
$8.38
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.68
Resistance Level
$8.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.67
Wall Street Target
$12.13
(+47.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.7%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 14.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.72
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$7.23
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$6.77
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$8.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 22.4%)
$28.96
(+251%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 22.4%)
$15.13
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 22.4%)
$12.86
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$17.07
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.7
Base Case
$15.52
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.8
Bear Case
$5.28
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.11
(+22.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 12:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amanda Kitzberger
SELL
11804 shares
2026-03-10
Scott Kelley Moore
SELL
1451 shares
2026-03-10
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