TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$114.49
-2.25 (-1.93%)
▼
5d:
-2.95%
30d:
+10.17%
90d:
+6.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$156.52
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $114.49, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.62 to $114.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.49, while resistance sits at $123.67.
Market Sentiment: TKR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $128.00 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.49, while resistance sits at $123.67.
Market Sentiment: TKR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $128.00 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$105.62 -
$114.88
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($128.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$105.62 -
$114.88
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.49
Resistance Level
$123.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.74
Wall Street Target
$128.00
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.47
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$120.52
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$123.65
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$114.47
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$213.95
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$162.32
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 12.3%)
$137.97
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.40
Bull Case
$199.56
(+74%)
Analyst growth 55.4%, PE expands to 29.2
Base Case
$181.42
(+59%)
Market implied 55.4%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$79.38
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard G Kyle
SELL
19636 shares
2026-02-20
Richard G Kyle
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-19
Richard G Kyle
SELL
15837 shares
2025-11-25
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