HLNE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLNE - Hamilton Lane Incorporated Class A Common Stock
$97.01
-2.39 (-2.40%)
▼
5d:
-3.82%
30d:
-9.65%
90d:
-28.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLNE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLNE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$195.74
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.54
20.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLNE is currently trading at $97.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.50 to $106.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (21.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLNE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $93.24, while resistance sits at $103.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.57 (+73.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLNE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $93.24, while resistance sits at $103.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.57 (+73.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$97.50 -
$106.05
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 73.8% below Wall St target ($168.57)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$97.50 -
$106.05
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.84
(6.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$93.24
Resistance Level
$103.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.14
Wall Street Target
$168.57
(+73.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Profit Margin
30.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 21.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.31
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$78.58
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$70.72
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→22)
$100.45
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$193.96
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$131.37
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$111.66
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.61
Bull Case
$125.14
(+23%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$113.77
(+12%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$67.72
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 21.5
Stabilization Target:
$137.78
(+42.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLNE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Juan Delgado-Moreira
BUY
8000 shares
2025-11-07
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