HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$21.34
-3.16 (-12.90%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HMY trades at premium valuation expecting 8.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: HMY trades at premium valuation expecting 8.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.69
Based on -7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.88
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $21.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.37 to $23.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 12.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 12.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$20.37 -
$23.40
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HMY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-12.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.14)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.4% growth expectation is conservative given 147% recent growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.0% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.37 -
$23.40
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.00
Resistance Level
$26.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.89
Wall Street Target
$24.14
(-1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.7%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 9.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.56
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$28.79
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$31.21
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -19.1%)
$33.49
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: -19.1%)
$17.86
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: -19.1%)
$13.97
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$40.98
(+92%)
Analyst growth 43.1%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$37.25
(+75%)
Market implied 43.1%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$17.71
(-17%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HMY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HMY price and gamma walls.
