HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$16.10
-0.06 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
+15.49%
30d:
-20.57%
90d:
-19.1%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -14.7% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -14.7% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.34
48.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $16.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.20 to $20.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.0) compared to its historical average (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $13.20, while resistance sits at $16.66.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.73 (+47.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $13.20, while resistance sits at $16.66.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.73 (+47.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$14.20 -
$20.55
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.4% below Wall St target ($23.73)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.20 -
$20.55
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.20
Resistance Level
$16.66
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.03
Wall Street Target
$23.73
(+47.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 8.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.49
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.04
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.74
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→8)
$18.90
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 31.7%)
$150.26
(+833%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 31.7%)
$36.75
(+128%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 31.7%)
$31.24
(+94%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.51
Bull Case
$24.84
(+76%)
Analyst growth 69.5%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$22.58
(+60%)
Market implied 69.5%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$9.06
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$25.92
(+61.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+61.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 06, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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