HOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$19.80
0.09 (0.46%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HOG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HOG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.61
Based on -23.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $19.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.17 to $21.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 240.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HOG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.50 (+34.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HOG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.50 (+34.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$20.17 -
$21.10
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.4% below Wall St target ($26.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.17 -
$21.10
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.44
Resistance Level
$21.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.88
Wall Street Target
$26.50
(+34.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
240.7%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.26
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$18.81
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$18.38
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$19.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -51.3%)
$32.42
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: -51.3%)
$14.37
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: -51.3%)
$12.21
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.20
Bull Case
$10.93
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 5.2
Base Case
$9.94
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.7
Bear Case
$13.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$21.14
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Rafeh Masood
BUY
2068 shares
2025-08-05
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HOG price and gamma walls.
