HRTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$26.07
-0.37 (-1.40%)
▼
5d:
+2.28%
30d:
-10.99%
90d:
+13.0%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRTG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRTG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.88
Based on -7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.73
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $26.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.43 to $27.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 513.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.50 (+36.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.50 (+36.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$25.43 -
$27.95
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.2% below Wall St target ($35.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.43 -
$27.95
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.90
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.05
Resistance Level
$26.79
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.04
Wall Street Target
$35.50
(+36.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
513.0%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.60
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$25.14
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$24.69
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$26.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -18.0%)
$70.18
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: -18.0%)
$19.01
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: -18.0%)
$16.15
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.83
Bull Case
$25.29
(-3%)
Analyst growth -10.6%, PE expands to 5.9
Base Case
$22.99
(-12%)
Market implied -10.6%, PE stable at 5.3
Bear Case
$17.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$27.63
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 3:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2025-10-20
Richard A Widdicombe
SELL
100000 shares
2025-10-14
Kirk Lusk
SELL
6803 shares
2025-10-03
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