HRTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$26.25
-0.01 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
-8.95%
90d:
-11.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRTG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 226% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRTG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 226% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.86
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.75
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $26.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.75 to $28.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (6.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 226.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.08, while resistance sits at $28.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.50 (+39.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.08, while resistance sits at $28.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.50 (+39.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$25.75 -
$28.15
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.0% below Wall St target ($36.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.75 -
$28.15
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.23
(8.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.08
Resistance Level
$28.05
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.34
Wall Street Target
$36.50
(+39.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
226.0%
Profit Margin
23.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 6.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.10
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$23.99
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$22.94
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$26.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.7%)
$137.51
(+424%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$32.83
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 7.7%)
$27.90
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.32
Bull Case
$21.96
(-18%)
Analyst growth -22.2%, PE expands to 4.5
Base Case
$19.97
(-25%)
Market implied -22.2%, PE stable at 4.1
Bear Case
$17.44
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 6.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.01
(+14.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-02-20
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-01-20
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2025-12-22
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