HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$191.73
4.75 (2.54%)
▲
5d:
+1.32%
30d:
-0.47%
90d:
-12.61%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
Get Alerted When HSY Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.4% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.4% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$387.45
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$240.57
20.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $191.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $184.81 to $196.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.4) compared to its historical average (23.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 93.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $196.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HSY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.39 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $196.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HSY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.39 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$184.81 -
$196.66
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($217.39)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$184.81 -
$196.66
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$181.64
Resistance Level
$196.58
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.37
Wall Street Target
$217.39
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 23.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$179.46
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$167.97
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$157.22
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→24)
$191.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 17.5%)
$355.31
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 17.5%)
$311.39
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 17.5%)
$264.68
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.37
Bull Case
$379.15
(+98%)
Analyst growth 84.3%, PE expands to 38.3
Base Case
$344.68
(+80%)
Market implied 84.3%, PE stable at 34.8
Bear Case
$127.15
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 23.6
Stabilization Target:
$233.62
(+21.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 7:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-20
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-18
Jason Reiman
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-24
Top Rated Confectioners Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Confectioners by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MDLZ
Mondelez International I… |
BUY
28 analysts |
$67 | 57 HOLD |
Advanced HSY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HSY price and gamma walls.
