HTLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTLD - Heartland Express Inc
$10.15
-0.07 (-0.68%)
▼
5d:
+2.01%
30d:
-7.98%
90d:
+10.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
Smart Money Distribution
HTLD is up 5.8% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $7.5 2026-06-18 with 24 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HTLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HTLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.04
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.72
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTLD is currently trading at $10.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.69 to $11.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.3) is in line with its historical norms (27.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.38, while resistance sits at $10.46.
Market Sentiment: HTLD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.38, while resistance sits at $10.46.
Market Sentiment: HTLD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$9.69 -
$11.02
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($10.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.69 -
$11.02
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.23
(12.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.38
Resistance Level
$10.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.32
Wall Street Target
$10.00
(-1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.1%
Profit Margin
-6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.3 vs 27.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.94
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.73
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$9.52
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→27)
$10.16
(+0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.3 to 27.0
Stabilization Target:
$10.82
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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