HWKN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWKN - Hawkins Inc
$130.25
-9.49 (-6.79%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HWKN is down 15.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HWKN is down 15.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$156.99
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.48
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWKN is currently trading at $130.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $143.67 to $155.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.7) is in line with its historical norms (32.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWKN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $130.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $188.00 (+34.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWKN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $130.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $188.00 (+34.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$143.67 -
$155.85
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HWKN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.5% below Wall St target ($188.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$143.67 -
$155.85
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.90
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.18
Resistance Level
$158.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.69
Wall Street Target
$188.00
(+34.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.9%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.7 vs 32.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.34
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$136.96
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$135.59
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→33)
$139.92
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.7, Growth: 10.7%)
$189.39
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.7%)
$133.28
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.7%)
$113.29
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.96
Bull Case
$188.34
(+45%)
Analyst growth 11.4%, PE expands to 42.7
Base Case
$171.22
(+32%)
Market implied 11.4%, PE stable at 38.8
Bear Case
$104.55
(-20%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.7 to 32.7
Stabilization Target:
$144.21
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 6:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWKN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HWKN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HWKN price and gamma walls.
