HZO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HZO - MarineMax, Inc.
$27.03
2.38 (9.66%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HZO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HZO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.97
9.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HZO is currently trading at $27.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.88 to $28.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 100% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HZO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $23.84, while resistance sits at $29.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.71 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HZO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $23.84, while resistance sits at $29.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.71 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$24.88 -
$28.24
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
23th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 23th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+9.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($30.71)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.88 -
$28.24
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.97
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.84
Resistance Level
$29.27
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.02
Wall Street Target
$30.71
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
-1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 14.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.60
(0%)
2-Year Target
$24.55
(0%)
3-Year Target
$24.50
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$24.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 146.6%)
$132.30
(+437%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 146.6%)
$83.19
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 146.6%)
$70.71
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$24.79
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HZO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
W Brett Mcgill
SELL
60000 shares
2025-08-25
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HZO is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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Advanced HZO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HZO price and gamma walls.
