ICFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ICFI - ICF International, Inc.
$65.27
0.50 (0.77%)
▲
5d:
-5.21%
30d:
-21.48%
90d:
-24.26%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ICFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ICFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.54
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.85
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ICFI is currently trading at $65.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.05 to $77.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ICFI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ICFI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.25 (+62.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ICFI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ICFI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.25 (+62.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$67.05 -
$77.42
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.5% below Wall St target ($105.25)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$67.05 -
$77.42
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.67
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.34
Resistance Level
$71.91
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.46
Wall Street Target
$105.25
(+62.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.4%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 11.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$52.93
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$47.85
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$65.04
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.0%)
$221.89
(+243%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 9.0%)
$83.80
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 9.0%)
$71.23
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.95
Bull Case
$112.10
(+63%)
Analyst growth 54.7%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$101.91
(+48%)
Market implied 54.7%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$44.81
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$88.04
(+35.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ICFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randall Mehl
BUY
1100 shares
2026-03-06
Randall Mehl
BUY
500 shares
2025-11-17
Randall Mehl
BUY
500 shares
2025-11-14
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