INVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INVA - Innoviva, Inc. Common Stock
$22.86
-0.28 (-1.21%)
▼
5d:
+0.26%
30d:
-4.43%
90d:
+1.87%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
INVA is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $25 2026-06-18 with 175 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: INVA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: INVA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.99
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.97
0.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INVA is currently trading at $22.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.85 to $23.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 590.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INVA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.40 (+54.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INVA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.40 (+54.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$22.85 -
$23.86
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.9% below Wall St target ($35.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.85 -
$23.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.03
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.20
Resistance Level
$23.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.34
Wall Street Target
$35.40
(+54.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
590.4%
Profit Margin
119.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.75
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$22.63
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$22.52
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$22.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 15.7%)
$75.45
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 15.7%)
$35.41
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 15.7%)
$30.10
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.26
Bull Case
$12.73
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 4.1
Base Case
$11.57
(-49%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 3.7
Bear Case
$15.74
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$23.20
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced INVA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INVA price and gamma walls.
