Is IOT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, IOT is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: IOT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of IOT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for IOT to be between $27.76 and $30.83. The current price is $27.99.

What is the analyst price target for IOT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for IOT is $44.17. This implies a potential upside of 57.8% from current levels.

IOT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

IOT - Samsara Inc.

SERVICES-COMPUTER INTEGRATED SYSTEMS DESIGN

$27.99

0.47 (1.71%) ▲

5d: -7.04%

30d: -2.98%

90d: +4.95%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your IOT Gains

Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jun 04, 2026 19d

Smart Money Distribution

IOT is up 3.5% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $20 2026-06-18 with 4,634 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →

Strength: 2.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IOT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 17.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$24.26

Based on 10.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$15.07

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: IOT is currently trading at $27.99, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.76 to $30.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 48.1) compared to its historical average (67.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, IOT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.78, while resistance sits at $31.61.

Market Sentiment: IOT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.17 (+57.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $27.76 - $30.83

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 57.8% below Wall St target ($44.17)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.0%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $27.76 - $30.83

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $26.78

Resistance Level $31.61

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of May 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 48.14

Wall Street Target $44.17 (+57.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 28.3%

Profit Margin -0.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -10.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 48.1 vs 67.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -10.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $25.19 (-10%)

2-Year Target $22.67 (-19%)

3-Year Target $20.40 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 48→68) $28.69 (+3%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 48.1, Growth: 17.8%) $45.80 (+64%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.8%) $20.97 (-25%)

Bear: (PE: 18.7, Growth: 17.8%) $17.82 (-36%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 48.1 to 67.7

Stabilization Target: $39.36 (+40.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +40.6%

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Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Adam Eltoukhy SELL 5473 shares 2026-04-20

John Bicket SELL 96690 shares 2026-04-15

Sanjit Biswas SELL 96562 shares 2026-04-15

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