ITRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITRI - Itron Inc
$89.63
5.75 (6.86%)
▲
5d:
-3.3%
30d:
-5.81%
90d:
-5.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$162.55
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$100.93
11.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITRI is currently trading at $89.63, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.23 to $95.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 73.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITRI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $83.51, while resistance sits at $95.17. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ITRI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.80 (+52.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITRI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $83.51, while resistance sits at $95.17. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ITRI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.80 (+52.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$89.23 -
$95.90
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 52.6% below Wall St target ($136.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$89.23 -
$95.90
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.10
(6.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.51
Resistance Level
$95.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.03
Wall Street Target
$136.80
(+52.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
73.6%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 15.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.79
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$80.21
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$75.88
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$89.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.0%)
$227.77
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 14.0%)
$132.80
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$112.88
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.50
Bull Case
$106.25
(+14%)
Analyst growth 5.8%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$96.59
(+3%)
Market implied 5.8%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$62.07
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$105.93
(+18.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joan S Hooper
SELL
3533 shares
2026-02-26
Donald L Reeves III
SELL
519 shares
2026-02-25
David Marshall Wright
SELL
264 shares
2026-02-20
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