IVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
$8.59
-0.31 (-3.48%)
▼
5d:
-4.45%
30d:
+3.0%
90d:
+17.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
16d
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2 traders called IVR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: IVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: IVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.88
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.51
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IVR is currently trading at $8.59, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.47 to $9.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.0) is in line with its historical norms (3.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$8.47 -
$9.07
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.47 -
$9.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.54
Resistance Level
$9.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.95
Wall Street Target
$8.67
(+0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
73.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
4.0 vs 3.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.69
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$8.80
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$8.90
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.57
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -1.1%)
$46.93
(+446%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: -1.1%)
$8.31
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.4, Growth: -1.1%)
$7.06
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.48
Bull Case
$19.69
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.5
Base Case
$17.90
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$6.09
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 8:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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