IVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
$7.82
0.11 (1.43%)
▲
5d:
-0.13%
30d:
-7.24%
90d:
-9.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
IVR is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $8 2026-05-15 with 37 OI. Call ratio: 85% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IVR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: IVR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.95
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.18
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IVR is currently trading at $7.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.92 to $8.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.3) is in line with its historical norms (3.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.56, while resistance sits at $8.30.
Market Sentiment: IVR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.56, while resistance sits at $8.30.
Market Sentiment: IVR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$7.92 -
$8.46
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.92 -
$8.46
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.56
Resistance Level
$8.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.34
Wall Street Target
$8.50
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
557.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
84.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.3 vs 3.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.57
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$7.33
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$7.09
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$7.86
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 1.6%)
$54.95
(+603%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.3, Growth: 1.6%)
$8.20
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.8, Growth: 1.6%)
$6.97
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$15.10
(+93%)
Analyst growth 79.6%, PE expands to 6.4
Base Case
$13.72
(+75%)
Market implied 79.6%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$5.20
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.3 to 3.7
Stabilization Target:
$8.67
(+10.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is IVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robert Waldner
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-27
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