JEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$61.18
-0.02 (-0.03%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 01, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JEF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JEF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.34
33.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $61.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.65 to $64.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $60.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.67 (+22.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $60.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.67 (+22.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$61.65 -
$64.06
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.0% below Wall St target ($74.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$61.65 -
$64.06
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.06
Resistance Level
$64.70
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.94
Wall Street Target
$74.67
(+22.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.6%
Profit Margin
9.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 13.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.04
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$53.16
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$49.54
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$61.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 31.4%)
$283.01
(+362%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 31.4%)
$138.80
(+127%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 31.4%)
$117.98
(+93%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.85
Bull Case
$133.58
(+118%)
Analyst growth 96.3%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$121.44
(+99%)
Market implied 96.3%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$42.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$75.54
(+23.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.
