JEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$40.27
0.42 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
+1.82%
30d:
-9.3%
90d:
-36.99%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 25, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
JEF is down 7.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $55 2026-04-17 with 193 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JEF appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.5% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JEF appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.5% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.19
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.66
42.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $40.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.33 to $48.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.70, while resistance sits at $41.77.
Market Sentiment: JEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.83 (+32.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.70, while resistance sits at $41.77.
Market Sentiment: JEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.83 (+32.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$37.33 -
$48.98
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.6% below Wall St target ($52.83)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.33 -
$48.98
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.70
Resistance Level
$41.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.68
Wall Street Target
$52.83
(+32.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.87
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$32.28
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$29.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$42.00
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 48.6%)
$381.63
(+858%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 48.6%)
$130.80
(+228%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 48.6%)
$111.18
(+179%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.85
Bull Case
$78.71
(+99%)
Analyst growth 87.7%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$71.55
(+81%)
Market implied 87.7%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$25.93
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$57.61
(+44.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.
