JHX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JHX - James Hardie Industries plc
$22.99
-0.87 (-3.65%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JHX trades at premium valuation expecting 9.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: JHX trades at premium valuation expecting 9.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.23
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JHX is currently trading at $22.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.06 to $23.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.64 (+15.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.64 (+15.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$21.06 -
$23.94
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JHX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.64)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.6% growth with 34.5% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.06 -
$23.94
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.73
Resistance Level
$24.79
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.93
Wall Street Target
$27.64
(+15.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.4%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.6% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 15.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.15
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$28.66
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$31.41
(+32%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.96
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$33.42
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$29.86
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 7.8%)
$22.78
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 19.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.20
Bull Case
$27.76
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$22.99
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$17.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JHX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JHX price and gamma walls.
