Is KMX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, KMX is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: KMX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of KMX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for KMX to be between $41.36 and $43.16. The current price is $39.99.

What is the analyst price target for KMX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for KMX is $40.08. This implies a potential upside of -1.9% from current levels.

KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

KMX - CarMax Inc.

RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS

$40.00

-0.87 (-2.12%) ▼

5d: -6.75%

30d: -7.35%

90d: +1.85%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your KMX Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 14, 2026 14d

Smart Money Accumulation

KMX is down 14.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $50 2026-03-20 with 31,475 OI. Call ratio: 74% View Scanner →

Strength: 9.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KMX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -4.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$37.75

Based on -0.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$23.44

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $39.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.36 to $43.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $41.36 - $43.16

Company Quality Score 60/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 78.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.08)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.1% growth with -6.7% revenue growth
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $41.36 - $43.16

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $39.95

Resistance Level $44.02

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.00

Wall Street Target $40.08 (-1.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -6.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -47.2%

Profit Margin 1.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.1% premium

PE vs Historical 16.0 vs 15.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $41.72 (+2%)

2-Year Target $42.59 (+4%)

3-Year Target $43.49 (+6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→15) PE COMPRESSION $40.78 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: -4.5%) $49.79 (+22%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: -4.5%) $35.56 (-13%)

Bear: (PE: 13.6, Growth: -4.5%) $30.22 (-26%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 13.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.05

Bull Case $39.55 (-8%)

Analyst growth -14.1%, PE expands to 15.1

Base Case $35.96 (-16%)

Market implied -14.1%, PE stable at 13.7

Bear Case $28.46 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:12 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-01-29

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-01-22

Ro Khanna SELL 2025-10-07

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