KNSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNSL - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
$341.66
4.97 (1.48%)
▲
5d:
+4.64%
30d:
-13.76%
90d:
-13.56%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KNSL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.3% annual earnings decline despite 28% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KNSL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.3% annual earnings decline despite 28% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$555.46
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$344.90
0.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNSL is currently trading at $341.66, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $336.49 to $380.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.3) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $321.97, while resistance sits at $356.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $407.33 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $321.97, while resistance sits at $356.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $407.33 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$336.49 -
$380.86
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($407.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$336.49 -
$380.86
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$17.54
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$321.97
Resistance Level
$356.37
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.35
Wall Street Target
$407.33
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.8%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$323.55
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$306.40
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$290.16
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$342.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.3%)
$649.17
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$445.83
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 9.3%)
$378.96
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $21.66
Bull Case
$371.02
(+13%)
Analyst growth 2.8%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$337.29
(+3%)
Market implied 2.8%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$223.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$402.89
(+17.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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