KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$88.58
0.58 (0.66%)
▲
5d:
+2.18%
30d:
+7.87%
90d:
+21.48%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 18, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KSPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KSPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$238151.27
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147873.20
99.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $88.58, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.40 to $88.65. Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $100.26 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $100.26 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$79.40 -
$88.65
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($100.26)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.40 -
$88.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.55
Resistance Level
$89.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.01
Wall Street Target
$100.26
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.51
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$80.62
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$76.91
(-13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.7%)
$256619.90
(+289604%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 17.7%)
$144.28
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 17.7%)
$122.63
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.99
Bull Case
$193.60
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$176.00
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$59.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 PM
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Is KSPI showing a specific setup today?
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