KTOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.

GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS
$103.01
-5.15 (-4.76%) ▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
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Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026 18d
Smart Money Accumulation

KTOS is down 6.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $130 2026-03-20 with 936 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →

Strength: 4.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KTOS trades at premium valuation expecting 5.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.15
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: KTOS is currently trading at $103.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.12 to $120.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 141.2) compared to its historical average (119.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $102.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Fair Price Range $84.12 - $120.46
Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 62.9%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($117.63)
  • NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.8% growth expectation is conservative given 150% recent growth
  • CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $84.12 - $120.46
Current vs Fair Value FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $102.28
Resistance Level $134.00
Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 141.22
Wall Street Target $117.63 (+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 26.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 150.0%
Profit Margin 1.6%
Valuation Premium vs History +5.8% premium
PE vs Historical 141.2 vs 119.4 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +5.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $114.43 (+6%)
2-Year Target $121.07 (+12%)
3-Year Target $128.09 (+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 141→119) PE COMPRESSION $108.30 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 141.2, Growth: 46.0%) $336.59 (+211%)
Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 46.0%) $53.15 (-51%)
Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 46.0%) $45.18 (-58%)
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is KTOS showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Phillip D Carrai SELL 6000 shares 2025-10-15
Marie Mendoza SELL 1440 shares 2025-10-15
David M Carter SELL 4000 shares 2025-10-07

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Advanced KTOS Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KTOS price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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