KTOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
$71.94
-3.92 (-5.17%)
▼
5d:
-14.98%
30d:
-21.92%
90d:
-9.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
KTOS is down 10.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $120 2026-05-15 with 1,198 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KTOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KTOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.16
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KTOS is currently trading at $71.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.16 to $95.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 67.2) compared to its historical average (110.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: KTOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.35 (+64.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: KTOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.35 (+64.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$82.16 -
$95.45
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KTOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 64.5% below Wall St target ($118.35)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-15.0%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$82.16 -
$95.45
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.18
Resistance Level
$96.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
67.15
Wall Street Target
$118.35
(+64.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
67.2 vs 110.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.75
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$58.27
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$52.44
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 67→110)
$85.91
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 67.2, Growth: 38.0%)
$189.07
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 38.0%)
$63.07
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 38.0%)
$53.61
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (164x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (67x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 163.93 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.51
Bull Case
$101.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 172.1
Base Case
$83.69
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 163.9
Bear Case
$64.02
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 147.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 67.2 to 110.0
Stabilization Target:
$117.84
(+63.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+63.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KTOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marie Mendoza
SELL
1516 shares
2026-03-16
Phillip D Carrai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-03-16
Scott I Anderson
SELL
15000 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced KTOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KTOS price and gamma walls.
