LMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LMT - Lockheed Martin Corp.
$634.22
11.71 (1.88%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 20, 2026
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6 traders called LMT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LMT trades at premium valuation expecting 6.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: LMT trades at premium valuation expecting 6.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1002.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$622.24
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LMT is currently trading at $634.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $496.36 to $593.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.2) compared to its historical average (17.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.5% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $645.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $645.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$496.36 -
$593.02
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
LMT is technically overbought (RSI 81). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.9% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($569.68)
- BEARISH: Market expects 6.5% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$496.36 -
$593.02
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$573.39
Resistance Level
$645.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.17
Wall Street Target
$569.68
(-8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.5% premium
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 17.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$662.97
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$706.07
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$751.96
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$621.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 37.0%)
$1686.94
(+171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.2, Growth: 37.0%)
$1601.42
(+157%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 37.0%)
$1323.83
(+113%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.97
Bull Case
$1075.11
(+70%)
Analyst growth 63.6%, PE expands to 36.6
Base Case
$977.37
(+54%)
Market implied 63.6%, PE stable at 33.2
Bear Case
$406.14
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2025-08-05
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