LOB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOB - Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
$35.55
-0.64 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
-5.7%
30d:
-1.41%
90d:
-12.31%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LOB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LOB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.17
26.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOB is currently trading at $35.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.62 to $37.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 185.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.75 (+18.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.75 (+18.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.62 -
$37.78
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.75)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.62 -
$37.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.42
Resistance Level
$38.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.72
Wall Street Target
$42.75
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.7%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.00
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$33.84
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$32.72
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$36.02
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 35.5%)
$227.42
(+528%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 35.5%)
$89.98
(+149%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 35.5%)
$76.49
(+111%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.62
Bull Case
$63.41
(+75%)
Analyst growth 58.4%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$57.65
(+59%)
Market implied 58.4%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$24.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$39.84
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gregory W Seward
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-02
Walter J Phifer
SELL
4712 shares
2026-03-02
Courtney Spencer
SELL
9700 shares
2026-01-26
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