LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$300.18
3.28 (1.10%)
▲
5d:
-0.03%
30d:
-0.07%
90d:
-19.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$706.69
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$438.80
31.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $300.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $292.51 to $314.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $308.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $451.92 (+50.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $308.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $451.92 (+50.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$292.51 -
$314.76
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
8th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 8th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.6% below Wall St target ($451.92)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$292.51 -
$314.76
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$16.65
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$282.63
Resistance Level
$308.82
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.30
Wall Street Target
$451.92
(+50.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
41.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 13.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$275.57
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$252.97
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$232.23
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$299.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 21.9%)
$1178.57
(+293%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 21.9%)
$543.37
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 21.9%)
$461.87
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.91
Bull Case
$644.78
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$586.16
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$199.29
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$387.45
(+29.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marc Eliot Cohen
SELL
1088 shares
2026-03-10
Marc Eliot Cohen
SELL
2212 shares
2026-03-09
Matthew Enyedi
SELL
2109 shares
2026-02-26
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