LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$364.50
1.79 (0.49%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$793.46
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$492.68
26.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $364.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $360.92 to $373.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $347.11, while resistance sits at $383.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $448.92 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $347.11, while resistance sits at $383.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $448.92 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$360.92 -
$373.63
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($448.92)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$360.92 -
$373.63
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$347.11
Resistance Level
$383.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.60
Wall Street Target
$448.92
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$339.71
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$316.61
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$295.08
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$362.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 20.5%)
$1129.45
(+210%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 20.5%)
$638.35
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 20.5%)
$542.60
(+49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.72
Bull Case
$807.18
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.7
Base Case
$733.80
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.2
Bear Case
$249.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$448.26
(+23.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.0%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Greg Gates
SELL
750 shares
2025-10-06
Greg Gates
SELL
1500 shares
2025-09-05
Aneri Jambusaria
SELL
80 shares
2025-09-02
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Advanced LPLA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LPLA price and gamma walls.
