LRCX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LRCX - Lam Research Corp
$199.93
-11.48 (-5.43%)
▼
5d:
-14.31%
30d:
-14.52%
90d:
+12.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
Smart Money Distribution
LRCX is up 8.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $200 2026-05-15 with 21,443 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LRCX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LRCX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$336.09
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$208.69
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LRCX is currently trading at $199.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $211.54 to $238.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.6) compared to its historical average (35.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $199.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $274.90 (+30.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $199.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $274.90 (+30.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$211.54 -
$238.75
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LRCX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.0% below Wall St target ($274.90)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-14.3%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$211.54 -
$238.75
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$199.65
Resistance Level
$241.37
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.62
Wall Street Target
$274.90
(+30.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.0%
Profit Margin
30.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.6 vs 35.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$200.84
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$190.80
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$181.26
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→36)
$211.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.6, Growth: 30.0%)
$464.88
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 30.0%)
$340.04
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 30.0%)
$289.04
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.86
Bull Case
$356.82
(+53%)
Analyst growth 42.0%, PE expands to 51.7
Base Case
$324.38
(+39%)
Market implied 42.0%, PE stable at 47.0
Bear Case
$155.28
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.6 to 35.7
Stabilization Target:
$246.45
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LRCX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Douglas R Bettinger
SELL
50057 shares
2026-03-04
Ava Harter
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-04
Ava Harter
SELL
4000 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced LRCX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LRCX price and gamma walls.
