LRCX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LRCX - Lam Research Corp
$233.46
-14.71 (-5.93%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
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8 traders called LRCX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LRCX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: LRCX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$271.32
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$168.47
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LRCX is currently trading at $233.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $184.12 to $230.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.5) is in line with its historical norms (38.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $213.87, while resistance sits at $251.87. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $216.81. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $213.87, while resistance sits at $251.87. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $216.81. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$184.12 -
$230.05
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LRCX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.9%)
- BEARISH: Trading 12.6% above Wall St target ($216.81)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$184.12 -
$230.05
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$213.87
Resistance Level
$251.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.53
Wall Street Target
$216.81
(-12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.3%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
41.5 vs 38.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$255.62
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$263.28
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$271.18
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→38)
PE COMPRESSION
$248.13
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.5, Growth: 21.7%)
$446.80
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.7%)
$239.92
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 21.7%)
$203.93
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.86
Bull Case
$324.04
(+39%)
Analyst growth 23.0%, PE expands to 54.2
Base Case
$294.58
(+26%)
Market implied 23.0%, PE stable at 49.3
Bear Case
$162.91
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LRCX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Vahid Vahedi
SELL
52190 shares
2025-10-13
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
David Taylor
SELL
2025-09-22
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