ASML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASML - ASML Holding NV
$1769.32
-73.72 (-4.00%)
▼
5d:
-3.9%
30d:
+3.75%
90d:
+30.12%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
11d
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Smart Money Accumulation
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Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASML shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASML shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2098.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1303.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1769.32, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1670.04 to $1886.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.0) is in line with its historical norms (39.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1730.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1730.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1670.04 -
$1886.79
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1750.15)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1670.04 -
$1886.79
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1730.29
Resistance Level
$1999.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.04
Wall Street Target
$1750.15
(-1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.2%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
41.0 vs 39.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1785.24
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$1801.31
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$1817.52
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→40)
PE COMPRESSION
$1766.94
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.0, Growth: 35.5%)
$4399.73
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 35.5%)
$2334.82
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 35.5%)
$1984.60
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (63x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (41x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 62.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.49
Bull Case
$2963.66
(+68%)
Analyst growth 46.2%, PE expands to 68.8
Base Case
$2694.24
(+52%)
Market implied 46.2%, PE stable at 62.5
Bear Case
$1253.27
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 53.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 3:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASML showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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