MAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAR - Marriott International Class A Common Stock
$315.30
-4.47 (-1.40%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
10d
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1 traders called MAR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$430.84
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$267.52
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAR is currently trading at $315.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $313.21 to $323.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.0) is in line with its historical norms (27.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $311.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $311.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$313.21 -
$323.15
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($315.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$313.21 -
$323.15
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$311.57
Resistance Level
$327.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.97
Wall Street Target
$315.56
(-1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.0%
Profit Margin
38.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
28.0 vs 27.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$322.65
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$325.55
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$328.48
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$319.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.0, Growth: 13.2%)
$463.29
(+45%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.2%)
$369.41
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.2%)
$314.00
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.48
Bull Case
$416.53
(+30%)
Analyst growth 20.6%, PE expands to 36.4
Base Case
$378.66
(+18%)
Market implied 20.6%, PE stable at 33.1
Bear Case
$213.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-04
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