MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$308.53
2.63 (0.86%)
▲
5d:
+0.02%
30d:
-9.54%
90d:
-0.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$452.74
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$281.11
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $308.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $313.18 to $333.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.4) is in line with its historical norms (23.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $304.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $345.21 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $304.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $345.21 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$313.18 -
$333.93
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($345.21)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$313.18 -
$333.93
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$304.78
Resistance Level
$330.49
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.45
Wall Street Target
$345.21
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.5 vs 23.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$300.51
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$292.70
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$285.08
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$308.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.6%)
$412.15
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.4, Growth: 8.6%)
$395.48
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.2, Growth: 8.6%)
$336.16
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.95
Bull Case
$408.62
(+33%)
Analyst growth 20.3%, PE expands to 28.4
Base Case
$371.47
(+20%)
Market implied 20.3%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$210.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 23.2
Stabilization Target:
$333.76
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 7:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
18
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
2626 shares
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Jonathan Banner
SELL
6201 shares
2026-02-23
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