MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$315.00
-0.51 (-0.16%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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1 traders called MCD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCD is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MCD is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$427.67
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$265.55
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $315.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $304.51 to $312.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.8) is in line with its historical norms (23.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $317.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $317.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$304.51 -
$312.72
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($333.55)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$304.51 -
$312.72
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$302.45
Resistance Level
$317.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.80
Wall Street Target
$333.55
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Profit Margin
32.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
23.8 vs 23.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$317.40
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$319.31
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$321.22
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$315.81
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.8, Growth: 9.3%)
$411.45
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$385.51
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.3%)
$327.68
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.72
Bull Case
$389.18
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$353.80
(+12%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 26.7
Bear Case
$212.70
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Cleo Fields
BUY
2025-09-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-05
Edith Morgan Flatley
SELL
1000 shares
2025-09-02
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCD price and gamma walls.
